M.D.
My experience was that my children did better when I was not there. Well, I was really there, but around the corner where they could not see me. After a few weeks, I started "being there" again and he was fine.
When he was younger I was in the water as well. Might be worth a try?
I also encourage play at home that lessens water fear in the bath/shower. Blowing bubbles, pouring water over their heads (make it a game).
I recommend that you continue with lessons, private or group. This will help the kids when they are around pools to some extent, but there still has to be adequate adult supervision (this is just a reminder for everyone).
As to why he was fine and then not fine, what phase of the moon is it? ;-) Seriously, it's hard to figure out what is going on in their heads. No ideas.